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There are several reasons for this, one of which is the absurd imbalance of power between San Francisco's executive and legislative branches: The mayor has too much control over appointees, too much command of the bureaucracy, and waaaaay too much power to screw with the budget even after it's been agreed on. Those are tough nuts to crack.
Beyond that, the Mayor's team are experienced back-room brawlers -- while none of the new board leadership is. That's showed in the two biggest tussles between Room 200 and David Chiu and his merry men: the Muni budget and the city budget. In both cases, the board's majority started out with a clear statement of principles and a clearly preferred approach, and in both cases they bargained it all away with the mayor's surrogates. His surrogates, mind you: the fact that the president of the Board of Supervisors has to make an appointment to talk to California's hair-apparent is all you need to know about who has the psychological advantage.
But most importantly, the rigidity of the progressive movement combined with the political climate means that Newsom -- a man whose pragmatism is the conjoined twin of his egotism -- will always have more to offer the swing votes.
The swing votes are Bevan Dufty and Sophie Maxwell, both of whom are, by temperament, sympathetic to the progressives on most of their issues. But what do they want?
Bevan Dufty wants to be mayor. Can the progressives give him that?
Not a chance: Bevan's a moderate who would never pass the ideological purity test of the progressive witch-hunters. He will never be their candidate of choice: Even if the leadership were to try to push their interest groups into his camp, the rank-and-file wouldn't follow. Bevan won't get enough progressive endorsements, progressive money, or progressive volunteers to make it worth his while to play ball.
Gavin Newsom's allies, on the other hand, would be happy to co-opt Bevan if it looks like he's got a chance. Since Newsom (by all accounts) doesn't give a damn what happens to room 200 after he leaves, he can promise Dufty all the access, endorsements, money, and logistical aid he needs. Newsom also has something to take away: Whereas Dufty's no worse off than he was before if he votes against the progressives, Newsom can potentially cut Dufty off from the people he needs to win citywide.
The result could best be seen on the Muni budget: Bevan publicly stated that he thought it was terrible, and originally sided with the progressives to veto it. But by the time the negotiations were through, he was in the mayor's pocket.
Why would it have gone any differently?
The same basic dynamic plays out with Sophie Maxwell, though she's more of an enigma than Dufty. My best guess as to what Sophie wants -- which is no better than anyone else's -- is that she actually wants what she ostensibly wants: development, jobs, and resources for her suffering district.
This puts her at odds with her progressive colleagues in fundamental ways: They're happy to shunt money to poor neighborhoods ... but there is no money. Besides, Sophie wants DEVELOPMENT, something the progressives wouldn't know how to give even if they wanted to. Which they don't. The mayor's allies, on the other hand, are developers who would love to develop, and would be happy to work with Sophie on that, circumstances permitting.
Once again, Gavin Newsom has something to offer a swing vote - while the progressives don't.
Not only is this fundamental dynamic not going to change through 2010, it's going to get worse. If the progressives don't decide that winning legislative fights is worth the possibility of a Mayor Dufty and a built-up Bayview, then both Dufty and Maxwell are going to get more desperate as they get closer to being termed out of office, which will push them closer to the mayor and his downtown allies.
Look for that dynamic to continue until there's a new mayor -- either because Newsom gets the governor's big chair, or is termed out of office. At that point, all bets are off.
